Notes on commodity exposure, P&L and risk

1 Oct 2026 · Ravi Chandra Nutakki

Is recession around? Putting AI into everyday commodity decisions

At GLOBOIL India 2026, Nagaraj Meda's presentation started a conversation we believe in deeply: AI should not just predict prices. It should become part of everyday decision-making.

One lesson has held constant at TransGraph since 2003. Automated outlooks can improve the odds of identifying the price path a market will take, but market judgement goes beyond parameter-driven calculation.

So is our AI model predicting a recession? Built on 30 engineered data features, it estimated the probability of recession, at the time of the presentation, at 14.8% within three months, 18.9% within six months and 41.6% within twelve months.

That is not a price forecast. It is a decision framework — one that helps analysts, traders, risk managers and AI/ML models choose which price-forecasting scenario to work from.

With TransRisk, the price outlook meets your books. AI forecasts, in-house trader views or external forecast services can be applied directly to your net open position. The result is more than accurate reporting of where you stand today: it is a forward-looking MtM P&L, and a practical step towards managing risk before it arrives.

For Oil & Oilseeds businesses, TransRisk carries purpose-built industry algorithms: Realised P&L on dispatched quantities, Closed P&L on quantities matched to sales (mark-to-sales), and Open MtM on net exposure. Alongside them, refining and replacement margins by plant and board margins by market give the decision a dependable data layer to stand on.

Automated capture from ERPs, broker statements and system-generated email reports saves traders and MIS teams time that used to go into assembling the numbers — and increases trust in the numbers themselves.

Our thanks to the clients and well-wishers who have encouraged us over the years and helped us build a better solution for commodity risk management.

Do you include forecasted MtM in your net exposure reporting, or is your risk view still limited to today's positions?

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30 Sept 2026 · Ravi Chandra Nutakki

TransRisk receives the Powered By Partner award at GLOBOIL India 2026

TransRisk received the Powered By Partner award at GLOBOIL India 2026, conferred by YB Datuk Seri Dr. Noraini binti Ahmad, Honourable Minister of Plantation and Commodities, Government of Malaysia. The 29th edition of the summit ran from 29 September to 1 October at The Westin Mumbai Powai Lake, organised by Tefla's.

GLOBOIL is where the edible oils trade takes stock of itself — palm, soybean and sunflower, the price and supply outlook for 2026-27, and the widening overlap between food, fuel and policy. It is also a room where the risk question is rarely abstract. An importer or refiner holding positions across origins, grades and months does not need persuading that exposure matters. What they need is for it to be measured before the decision, rather than reconstructed after it.

The TransRisk was built for consolidating physical and financial positions, monitoring exposure by commodity, location, counterparty group and period, and decomposing the result into Open MtM, Margin P&L, Closed P&L and Realised P&L so that procurement, finance and leadership argue from one sheet.

Oil & Oilseeds is one of the eight industries TransRisk is configured for, and the questions raised in Mumbai were the ones we have been working on with commodity-intensive businesses since 2003.

Our thanks to the organisers, to those who shared the stage, and to the clients and partners who continue to shape the platform.

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28 Sept 2026 · Moksh Jain

Maize Market Outlook: Are You Tracking Your Margins?

TransGraph was at the Maize Markets Summit & Expo 2026 in Mumbai; one of the key discussions was around the possibility of a bearish maize market in the coming months.

For maize consumers, this could mean an attractive MtM opportunity on current inventory and procurement positions. But the bigger question is: how does this translate into your margins?

With TransRisk, maize-consuming businesses can track their current commodity margins and get visibility into forward month-wise margins, helping procurement and commodity teams understand how changing maize prices impact their profitability.

For ethanol manufacturers, where inventory may comprise multiple grains purchased at different price levels, TransRisk can provide inventory-wise margin visibility, helping you track the economics of each position and understand how margins evolve as inventory is consumed.

In a market where maize prices can materially impact your cost and margins, having visibility beyond the spot price can make a difference.

Are you tracking your current and forward maize margins?

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8 Sept 2026 · Ravi Chandra

23 years of TransGraph: what we are building TransRisk to be

TransGraph turns 23 this month, and TransRisk has been part of that journey since 2008. An anniversary is a reasonable moment to say plainly what we are building, and why.

Start with the problem our clients actually have. Exposure sits in the ERP. Hedges sit with treasury or a broker. Contracted volumes sit with procurement. Inventory costs and yields sit with operations. Each team holds a piece, each piece is current, and no one holds the whole. So the question that gates every commercial decision — given where we already stand, can we act on this view, and by how much? — takes two days and three spreadsheets to answer, by which time the market has moved.

TransRisk exists to answer that question in one place, every morning: exposure, hedges, margin and mark-to-market from a single dataset, visible to procurement, treasury, finance, risk and leadership at the same time.

Three things have to work together for that answer to be worth anything. Human judgement, because markets reward relevance, not information. Machines, because no team can consolidate positions across systems fast enough by hand. And governance, because a number nobody can audit is a number nobody will act on. Take away any one and the other two stop mattering.

This is why the spread of AI has not distracted our direction. Information is getting cheaper and faster for everyone, ours and our competitors' alike. What is not getting cheaper is the judgement to read a market correctly and the discipline to stand behind a number. AI makes analysts faster. It does not make a recommendation defensible.

Which brings us to the thing we care most about. Every number TransRisk produces can be opened up — traced back to the data, the position and the method that produced it. Nothing is asserted that cannot be shown. We build it that way because transparency is what earns trust, and trust is what a client is really relying on when they take a position on our work.

That has been true for 23 years. It is what we are still building for.

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2 Sept 2026 · Moksh Jain

Procurement is no longer just managing supply

TransGraph was at the India Procurement Summit & Awards in Mumbai on 2 September, organised by Synnex Group and filled largely with chief procurement officers and procurement leads. Much of the programme looked at digital transformation, AI alongside human judgement, and vendor management.

Mr. Nagaraj Meda, Chairman & Managing Director of TransGraph Consulting, spoke on driving procurement savings through proactive pricing, risk management and benchmarking. All three start from the same shift: a buying team held to landed cost and margin already owns price exposure, whether or not anyone in the organisation calls it that.

Proactive pricing means separating two decisions that usually travel together — where to buy, and when to price. They are different questions, often with different owners. It also means knowing the open position before negotiating, and hedging against a stated policy with defined limits rather than against a view.

Benchmarking is what makes a saving arguable. A price is only good or bad relative to the market over the period it covers; measured against last year's number, a poor buy in a falling market still reads as a win.

Three things we would avoid. Measuring procurement on purchase price alone, which quietly rewards timing bets. Treating a favourable print as a success without reference to the policy. And letting a long supply contract stand in for a price view it was never written to express.

That measurement is where TransRisk sits — consolidating physical and financial positions, monitoring exposure by commodity, location, counterparty group and period, and decomposing the result into Open MtM, Margin P&L, Closed P&L and Realised P&L.

Our thanks to the organisers, and to everyone who stopped to talk.

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13 Aug 2026 · Ravi Chandra Nutakki

TransRisk at Global Commodity Conclave 2026

TransRisk was showcased at the Global Commodity Conclave 2026, where our team presented the platform’s end-to-end commodity risk management capabilities to risk, procurement and finance professionals.

The discussion focused on a common challenge for commodity-intensive organisations: exposure, procurement, inventory, pricing and hedge information often sits across disconnected systems and spreadsheets. This limits visibility, increases manual effort and can delay critical commercial decisions.

TransRisk helps organisations bring these processes together through a unified platform for commodity exposure management, hedging and reporting. The platform supports teams in consolidating physical and financial positions, monitoring market exposure and strengthening risk governance across the business.

Key capabilities include: * Visibility of physical and financial commodity positions * Exposure monitoring by commodity, location, counterparty group and period * Hedge planning, coverage analysis and hedge-effectiveness tracking * Mark-to-market valuation and realised/unrealised P&L analysis * Role-based dashboards and reporting for procurement, treasury, finance, risk and leadership

A key takeaway from the conclave was that commodity risk management is increasingly a cross-functional responsibility. Procurement, trading, supply chain, finance, treasury and leadership teams need a common, reliable view of risk to make timely and informed decisions.

As market volatility and supply-chain uncertainty continue to affect commodity-intensive businesses, organisations need stronger tools to identify exposure early, assess potential financial impact and act within defined risk policies.

TransRisk enables this transition—from fragmented data and reactive reporting to connected risk intelligence, disciplined hedging and decision-ready insights. We thank the organisers of the Global Commodity Conclave 2026 and all the industry professionals who engaged with us during the event.

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28 Jan 2026 · Moksh Jain

TransGraph at India Energy Week 2026

TransGraph was at the fourth edition of India Energy Week in Goa on 28 January, one day of a programme running from the 27th to the 30th under the patronage of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, organised by the Federation of Indian Petroleum Industry with dmg events.

One question kept returning in the conversations we had: how does an energy or petrochemical business hold a steady view of its position when prices will not sit still? Volatility has stopped being an event that interrupts the plan and become the condition the plan has to survive.

For most teams that is a data problem before it is a hedging problem. Exposure, procurement, inventory, pricing and hedge information sit in separate systems, reconciled by hand and late, so the argument becomes whose number is right rather than what to do about it.

Three things came up often enough to record. Risk is cross-commodity: crude moves feedstock, feedstock moves polymer, freight and power move landed cost, so a position view assembled one commodity at a time will miss it. A hedge policy has to be evidenced — most teams had one, but fewer could show current coverage against it, which limits sat close to breach, or whether past hedges had worked. And the P&L has to decompose, because Open MtM, Margin P&L, Closed P&L and Realised P&L are what separate a result from its explanation.

That is the ground TransRisk covers, and Energy & Petrochemicals is one of the eight industries it is configured for. Our thanks to the organisers, and to everyone who stopped to talk.

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